On Saturday night, an earthquake monitoring station in Edinburgh, Scotland picked up a tremor. It was caused by 75,000 Taylor Swift fans jumping at a concert 3.5 miles (6km) away. Swift’s Eras Tour has set seismic records around the world – in Seattle a concert registered the equivalent to a 2.3 magnitude earthquake.

You would have to be fearless or foolish to attack Swift.

But this week, in the early daylight, two environmental protestors from Just Stop Oil cut through the fence surrounding the UK’s Stansted Airport. Their aim was to paint Swift’s gorgeous aircraft. They did not find it. Instead, they sprayed orange paint on two private jets and demanded an emergency treaty to end fossil fuels by 2030. They were arrested. The aircraft are no doubt clean now.

This is not the first time that pressure groups have criticised Swift’s jet use and tried to make her an anti-hero. But going after her reputation  could be a mistake. She is Miss Americana. A 2023 survey by Morning Consult said that 53% of adult Americans are Swift fans. Some 44% described themselves as Swifties. These mega-fans know her love story. They followed her flight back from Tokyo on a business jet to watch her lover Travis Kelce win the Superbowl with the Kansas City Chiefs.

The day before the protestors attempted to paint her jet, Just Stop Oil was widely condemned for painting some of the Stonehenge ancient stone circle orange, damaging rare delicate lichen.

In its wildest dreams, business aviation could not have picked a better role model. Swift uses business aviation to travel around the world in style, creating a gold rush in every country she performs in.

Sweden’s core inflation rose by 3% in May, with many blaming this on cash brought into the country by Swift’s fans (her friend Beyoncé also did this last May). A Bloomberg survey of economists estimated that just the five concerts in Singapore added between $225m and $300m (SGD400m) to the country’s economy.

Nomura estimates that the 53 concerts that made up the first US portion of the Eras Tour generated $5bn and raised US GDP by 0.02%. Ticket prices rose so high that many American fans are flying around the world to watch her.

We know all too well that this economic argument will not satisfy business aviation’s critics. At Corporate Jet Investor London green activists and politicians argued that business jets should be banned because of inequality as much as environmental effects (and that the two are linked – see below). It is champagne problems as much as carbon. There is nothing new about this argument.

“I think that’s where we should focus our attention in terms of conversation, as opposed to trying to fight off either those early adapters or the naysayers,”

At EBACE Michael Amalfitano, president of Embraer Executive Jets, said the industry should focus on winning the argument outside minorities. “You start to see the movable middle. I think that’s where we should focus our attention in terms of conversation, as opposed to trying to fight off either those early adapters or the naysayers,” he said. “It’s education. It’s collaboration.” The industry needs to fill that blank space.

Swift already buys carbon credits, but there is also the opportunity to publicise Sustainable Aviation Fuel. In 2019 Coldplay, a UK popular music group, said it would stop touring because of sustainability concerns. The band’s cardigan-wearing fans were delighted when it re-started concerts in 2022 after agreeing a deal with Neste to use SAF made from used cooking oil on its flights (not everyone agreed).

By targeting the enchanted Swift and her fans, protestors have pushed Amalfitano’s middle towards business aviation’s greatest ambassador. Ironically, one of the arrested protestors actually met Swift on a past UK tour. She knew better than to try to disrupt a concert. There would have been bad blood everywhere.

PS: Real Swifties should be able to spot at least 22 song titles in this piece.

The Green Party, Possible and Safe Landing were invited to Corporate Jet Investor London 2024 to explain why they believe that business jets should be banned. They did not hold back.

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Embraer first entered into a SAF agreement with Avfuel in July 2021 under which it received one 8,000-gallon truckload of Neste MY SAF per quarter to Sheltair MLB, the FBO that provides storage and handling services for Embraer.  

Under the new agreement, the Avfuel will make weekly SAF deliveries from April onwards. The partnership is expected to result in a total of 240,000 gallons of SAF delivered to Embraer in 2024.

“Embraer’s collaboration with Avfuel and Sheltair marks a pivotal milestone in our journey toward net-zero emission flight operations,” said Michael Amalfitano, president and CEO, Embraer Executive Jets. “Our continued investment in SAF demonstrates our dedication to reducing emissions today and driving the industry closer to the net-zero aviation goal by 2050.”

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David Guetta’s 2011 Titanium is one of those songs that gets stuck in your head. (Apologies if this has now happened).
Aircraft and engine manufacturers have also been obsessed with titanium since the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Before February 2022, aircraft manufacturers would regularly meet with Russia’s VSMPO-Avisma – a state-owned metals company – to buy titanium. Now they will not even answer its calls.

Titanium alloys are an aircraft and aircraft engine designer’s dream – featuring high-tensile strength-to-density ratio, corrosion resistance, crack resistance and their ability to withstand high temperatures. Kings Research values the current market at $4.14bn – it estimates it will reach $7.01bn by 2030. About 30% of all titanium sponge (the first stage in titanium processing) ends up in aviation.

Russia’s VSMPO supplied a quarter of all the world’s titanium on its own. It was the biggest single titanium supplier to both Airbus and Boeing. But aircraft manufacturers have successfully managed to cut this reliance remarkably quickly.

Outside Russia, leading suppliers of titanium ores are Australia, Canada, China, Kazakhstan and Mozambique. Norge Mining, an Anglo-Norwegian company, has recently announced a significant new titanium discover in Norway.

“Boeing has been pretty successful at continuing to source precious metals for our production needs, due to its diversified supply chain,” Alex Fecteau, director of Marketing, BBJ told CJI. “Our inventory and diversity of titanium sources provide sufficient supply for airplane production, and we continue to take steps to ensure long-term continuity.”  Boeing buys most of its titanium from the US.

Outside Russia, leading suppliers of titanium ores are Australia, Canada, China, Kazakhstan and Mozambique. Norge Mining, an Anglo-Norwegian company, has recently announced a significant new titanium discover in Norway.

Honda Aircraft Company says the scarcity of less precious commodities was more pressing, according to Amod Kelkar, chief commercial officer and vice president Customer Service. For example, sourcing polyurethane foam and carbon fibres was proving difficult. “Supply chain challenges are not something we face directly but indirectly through our suppliers,” Kelkar told us.

Embraer Executive Jets has seen the same. “The supply chains are challenged but we do a really good job of making stock available,” Michael Amalfitano, president and CEO told us. “You move products around and we moved titanium, so it [shortages] is not impacting anything seen at this time. There will be stresses in the system – but it’s more a question of logistics.”

The US sanctioned VSMPO in September 2022. But by then, manufacturers had already largely stopped buying.

Didier Kayat, CEO of turboprop manufacturer Daher, agrees: “We had an issue with titanium. But there is no issue with titanium anymore.”

As aircraft purchasing managers can sing: “You shoot me down, but I won’t fall. I found titanium.”

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If you walk through one of the many unmarked doors and go down a floor, you find a network of kitchens, storerooms, the staff canteen, loading bays and shortcuts. It typically takes staff a week to learn their way around the basement.

It is the same in business aviation. When things go well, customers do not see the grind that goes into making a flight happen or buying a jet. Unfortunately, they are increasingly seeing these problems. Particularly when aircraft are grounded or in pre-purchase inspections. Some 75% of the nearly 500 delegates believe supply chains are better than in 2022.

“For the first time in modern history, it’s all about the supply chain determining how many aircraft can be built. It is not just affecting production, it is affecting MRO and maintenance as well,” said Kevin Michaels, MD, AeroDynamic Advisory, on the supply chain panel.

Nick McBoyle, procurement director at Bombardier explained how the OEM has embedded about 60 interventions specialists into suppliers to help them manage their supply chains.

“There is a whack-a-mole effect where problems suddenly emerge,” said McBoyle. “We’re then into a cycle of operational gymnastics to make sure that we can continue the aircraft build as close to the schedule as possible and obviously get them out the door.”

Despite these efforts, 37% of delegates do not expect supply chains to return to pre-pandemic normality until 2025. (32% believe it will be 2026).

Predicting demand is much harder. Research firm Vertical Partners says that business jet OEMs had an average book to bill of 1.4x in the third quarter. It says that manufacturers had a 1.2x average for 2023. But delegates are worried that high interest rates and political turmoil could make 2024 a difficult year.

Some 69% of attendees were very optimistic about the next 12 months (with 19% fairly optimistic). But not everyone was that bullish. “Is it me or does this feel a lot like the spring of 2008?” said one delegate.

The general consensus from people at the event is that they expect fewer transactions in 2024 (although the first quarter may benefit from delayed fourth quarter deals) and demand for charter to soften.

Andrew Collins, co-CEO, Flexjet said that demand had clearly fallen from 2020: “Demand for jet cards was so strong I could have sold them by knocking on my neighbour’s door.” But he added that Sentient Jet and Flexjet are on track for great years in 2023.

Most believe that many of the richest customers that discovered business aviation will continue using it. “There is a reason why hearses don’t have luggage racks,” said Peder von Harten, president, Nicholas Air.

Every speaker agreed that predicting the market is harder than ever.

Michael Amalfitano, president and CEO of Embraer Executive Jets opened the conference by highlighting how business aviation is leading aviation decarbonisation. He stressed how business aviation is a test-bed for innovation.

Ed Bolen, president and CEO, NBAA also used this argument in his keynote. “Every new business aircraft model being delivered today is 30% more efficient than the aircraft it is replacing,” said Bolen, outlining the new Climbing. Fast. campaign. “Business aviation is an incubator for new technologies.”

Some customers like to see the workings of the industry. Apparently Frank Sinatra, Dean Martin and Sammy Davis Jr (who filmed the original Oceans 11 film at the Fontainebleau) used the underground passages to slip around the hotel without being spotted.

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The series, launched in 2008, now has more than 400 aircraft operating worldwide with customers including the RAF, Etihad and the Finnish Aviation Academy. According to makers, the newest addition to the series delivers superior cabin comfort, operational versatility and safety enhanced pilot-centric avionics. 

“We are proud to announce the Phenom 100EX—an aircraft designed to experience excellence with superior comfort and disruptive technology that enhances safety,” said Michael Amalfitano, President and CEO of Embraer Executive Jets. “This product reimagines the entry-level flight experience, offering enhanced comfort, empowering pilots, and enriching journeys to deliver more value to our customers.”

The aircraft incorporates Embraer’s Design DNA, this influenced the combining of cabin controls into upper tech panels, as well as the seat design, increased use of more sustainable materials and flush-to-the-wall tables that expand the workspace, said Embraer. 

The aircraft also includes interior improvements, like a baseline side-facing fifth seat and belted lavatory for additional passenger capacity. These new features come alongside the product’s best-in-class OvalLite cross-section, which provides further head- and legroom. The cockpit is equally considerate with further pilot legroom provided by extended seat tracking and an open-concept cockpit. 

In addition to the reimagined cabin, the aircraft boasts enhanced pilot-centric avionics as part of the Prodigy Touch, based on the Garmin 3000. It is also the first in its class to feature a Runway Overrun Awareness and Alerting System (ROAAS), said Embraer. 

Other avionics improvements include FlightStream 510, automatic 3D volumetric scanning with lightning and hail prediction, stabilized approach, predictive windshear, and more.

The Phenom 100EX is triple-certified by ANAC, FAA and EASA and is currently sold out in 2024 with the next available date for delivery in 2025.

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With deliveries expected to begin in 2025, it will be NetJets’ first time offering the midsize Praetor 500. The firm has been operating Phenom 300s, one of its most popular aircraft, for over a decade. The partnership between the two companies began in 2010 when NetJets first signed a purchase agreement for 50 Phenom 300s. Also, in 2021, after Embraer successfully delivered over 100 aircraft, the pair signed a continuing deal for up to 100 additional Phenom 300/E jets, in excess of $1.2bn.  

Michael Amalfitano, president and CEO of Embraer Executive Jets, said: “Since 2010, Embraer has enjoyed NetJets’ ongoing commitment to our industry-leading aircraft, which is a true testament to the value of our brand and our ability to deliver the ultimate experience in business aviation. Our strategic partnership has been an integral part of our business growth, with NetJets taking all aircraft delivery options that have been ordered with Embraer since inception. After building this successful foundation with the Phenom 300 series, it’s our pleasure to have now signed this monumental deal for the Praetor 500 midsize jet, and we look forward to an even more exciting future ahead.” 

The Praetor 500 offers best-in-class range, with US coast-to-coast capability, and it’s the only aircraft in its category with full fly-by-wire flight controls. Doug Henneberry, executive vice president of NetJets Aircraft Asset Management. “We are eager to add the Embraer Praetor 500, one of today’s most state-of-the-art business jets, to our midsize fleet. This historic fleet agreement is another way that we are growing our fleet for the benefit of our loyal customers. By adding up to 250 aircraft to our fleet, we will continue providing NetJets Owners with exceptional service and seamless access to all corners of the globe.” 

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Not just a summary of the weather at the NBAA-BACE event in Orlando, Florida last week. It also captures views on the short-term prospects for business aviation.

Which brings us to the R word for recession. Is one inevitable? Has it started already? And what can the industry do to mitigate its impact? We tried to build a snapshot of what the future might hold by canvassing industry views.

“It’s already here – it’s happening now,” is the view of Michael Amalfitano, president and CEO, Embraer Executive Jets. “But it’s not so much are you in it or out of it. The key questions are: ‘How severe will it be and what will be the industry impact?’”, he tells CJI. 

The big driver, for Amalfitano, is inflation – things are costing more. “So, whether it’s the gas [fuel] you put in your car or some part of the build of materials that goes into an aircraft – it will have to be passed on, at some point, in all aspects.”

Embraer’s long-term focus on lean enterprise efficiency, whether on the Porsche or Toyota approach, enables the business to face the future with confidence, says Amalfitano. “We have learned from those who have excellent experience in lean philosophies to take waste out of the system. When that happens, you become more efficient even when you have a recessionary climate looming on the horizon.” But so far, no buyers have dropped or delayed aircraft purchases on fears about world markets, he adds.

Éric Trappier, CEO, Dassault Aviation worries about the economic and humanitarian impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Energy supplies and pricing, inflation and interest rates and the continuing effects of the global pandemic – particularly on the supply chain from China – were further concerns. “Do we expect an economic crisis or recession in the coming weeks? Yes, there is a risk,” he tells CJI. 

“We are not sure. And those who know are not so few that 50% are right.” But with robust sales of business jets and the continuing sale of Rafale fighter jets (with an order for a further 42 expected next year), the OEM’s profitability is secured for at least the next 10 years, according to Trappier.

Honda Aircraft Company also highlights the contribution of “efficient, more capable and more automated product” in helping the industry navigate recessionary pressures. After the launch of the HondaJet Elite II – said to be the fastest, highest, and farthest flying aircraft in its class – Pete Kriegler, vice president, Sales tells CJI: “There are certain economic indicators that we are all watching – the thread is there for a global recession …”. But even in economic downturns, demand for private aviation remains resilient, he adds. 

His colleague Amod Kelkar, head of Commercial Business Unit, vice president Customer Service noted recession could even boost some categories. “If there is a recession, the tendency to fly on charter or fractional ownership will be an even more economical justification. We feel in our space, recession may not have the [same] trajectory, but it will certainly not flatten up. We expect growth.”

Since the NBAA-BACE event was staged almost within camera shot of Disney Studios, let’s leave the last word to the great man himself. Walt had a very particular, and characteristically American, view about economic down-turns. “I have heard there is going to be a recession. I have decided not to participate.”

Above: Ed Bolen, president and CEO, NBAA (right) on duty at the NBAA-BACE static demonstration last week. Top: Walt Disney: American animator, film producer, entrepreneur and recession pundit.

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Duet is a collaboration between Embraer and Porsche which is a result of years of working together. Customers receive a Porsche 911 Turbo S and a Phenom 300E when they agree to spend $10.9m. Only 10 of this limited-edition pairing will ever be produced.

Alvadi Serpa-Junior, director of Product Strategy at Embraer Executive Jets told Corporate Jet Investor: “Once the products were chosen, the next step was to make them match so that the customers could have a seamless and unique experience from driving to flying. It wasn’t hard for us to come to a common understanding of what we had to do. And we very quickly noticed how much our engineering and design teams think alike and shared the same passion for details.”

Michael Amalfitano, president and CEO, Embraer Executive Jets added: “We designed Duet in collaboration with Porsche to introduce a seamless travel experience for those wanting to arrive in something totally original, while holding true to our vision of delivering the ultimate experience in business aviation.”

There are hundreds of design links between the aircraft and the car.

Starting with seats, the sew style on the Phenom 300E seats were patterned after that of the 911 Turbo S. Both vehicles’ seats also feature red pull straps, a Speed Blue accent stitch, and carbon fibre shrouds. The flight deck seats were also redesigned to match the seats of the car. On the exterior, both aircraft and car share a matching paint pallet and scheme.

The aircraft registration number appears on the car’s rear wing and on the key. “When the vehicle hits 72 miles per hour, that rear wing goes up,” Jay Beever, vice president of Embraer Design Operations told CJI.

Duet customers will also get Buyers also get an exclusive Porsche-built Swiss watch, pilot jacket and luggage.

Read more about this in Corporate Jet Investor Quarterly Q4 2020.

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“The certification by Transport Canada Civil Aviation reinforces the great momentum of the Praetor 600 in the global market,” he said.

“We are excited to continue to serve this market with our industry-leading products. The Praetor 600 is the world’s most disruptive and technologically advanced super-midsize jet with superior performance and technology in addition to offering the smoothest flight in a best-in-class 6-foot-tall flat-floor cabin, resulting in the ultimate passenger comfort.”

The Praetor 600 can fly more than 4,000nm in long-range cruise speed and over 3,700nm at Mach .80 from runways shorter than 4,500ft. Also, its performance from wet and contaminated runways (snow and standing water), which are very common in the Canadian winter, played a significant role in achieving certification.

The Praetor 600 is now the farthest-flying super-midsize jet, capable of nonstop flights between Toronto and London, Montreal and Paris, Calgary and Honolulu. Also, its full fly-by-wire technology, which powers turbulence reduction and improves efficiency, can also reduce maintenance downtime by as much as 40% compared with conventional control, said Embraer.

Embraer announced the first delivery of the Praetor 600 in June 2019, and in late 2020 delivered the first Praetor 600 to fleet launch customer Flexjet.

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A new breed of High Net Worth Individuals and Ultra High Net Worth Individuals is emerging to re-energise business jet sales, Michael Amalfitano, President and CEO, Embraer Executive Jets, told more than 500 delegates in his keynote address.

“This is leading to much stronger than usual first-time buyer activity,” he said. “Before [Covid-19] first-time buyers used to represent 10% to 15% of business jet deliveries. Now it’s approaching 50% in some classes – especially entry level jet categories.” A clear trend was buyers’ interest in smaller aircraft. “We have also seen the pre-owned customers active and this market is heating up, particularly for smaller class aircraft – at least for now.”

Hamish Harding, Action Aviation chairman, also highlighted the trend towards new customers. “Most of our buyers are new buyers – the corporates aren’t buying at the moment – but there are exceptions. Only 10% of the people who could buy private jets have private jets,” he said. Harding confirmed buyers’ interest in smaller jets worldwide, if not in the Middle East. “People do want a private jet, so they don’t have to travel with other people. The concept of buying a smaller jet, just to be on your own, becomes possible and that trend is driving the current light jet market.”

‘People do want a private jet’

Garett Jerde, founder and MD, JetHQ, was equally upbeat about the prospects for new entrants revitalising private aviation. “I don’t think we have even scratched the surface. There’s so many people that can afford private aviation and now they’re coming out,” said Jerde. He also detected interest in smaller-sized aircraft. “Everybody thinks of G550 or a G650 or a Global 5000, but you can start a lot smaller to serve your purposes.” New entrants could buy a 400XP for $1.5m, he added.

Joseph Carfagna Jr, President and CEO, Leading Edge Aviation Solutions, agreed buyers were focusing on small aircraft. “This upturn [in 2020] is different because it’s driven by smaller aircraft,” said Carfagna. “The first-time buyers back when the market was hot in 2007 were buying big airplanes, as their first airplanes. This is a different segment that seems to be stepping in because of necessity because they don’t want to fly on airlines. It’s not wretched excess, which is what we had in 2007.”

‘It’s not wretched excess’

Brian Proctor, founder, President and CEO, Mente Group, guides his customers towards considering price rather than aircraft size. “Instead of looking at a segment we should be looking at a price point. The market will continue to be strong at $20m and below for the foreseeable future. At that price point you can buy everything except for a Sovereign, a 650, a 7500. There are a lot of airplanes that you can buy at $20m and below.”

Retaining new clients was the focus of interest for Andrew Collins, Sentient Jet President and CEO and lead executive, OneSky. “The first wave of new entrants has somewhat subsided,” he said. “So in order for us to breakout further into this addressable market space, we are going to have to retain those clients.” He noted a trend towards lower level executives now flying privately.

Concern about the fate of 100% bonus depreciation on aircraft sales also focused speakers’ attention. Clay Healey, AIC Title Service CEO, worried a new administration in the White House was likely to change the structure of taxation and probably remove the 100% depreciation from aircraft buyers, which was “very beneficial” for buyers, OEMs and used aircraft dealers.

Carfagna thought 100% bonus depreciation would survive next year if the Republicans held the Senate. “If Republicans keep the Senate on January 5th, there will be no change and people will keep buying aircraft into 2021.”

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