NBAA 2018 Live Blog Day -2: Embraer launches two new aircraft, Honeywell forecast
Although NBAA officially starts on Tuesday:
- Embraer has already launched two new aircraft: the Praetor 500 and Praetor 600.
- Honeywell publishes flat forecast for 2019-2028
NBAA 2018 on Sunday October 14
18.00 Final, final thoughts on NBAA Day – Minus Two
NBAA has started with an exciting launch of two aircraft. But it is worth noting that the two Praetores are going into the toughest, most-competitive business jet market of them all.
Honeywell’s fairly flat forecast may seem surprising but it reflects how hard selling new aircraft is at the moment. There is a lot of activity in the pre-owned market but OEMs will tell you that selling new aircraft is still a very tough business.
17.00 Honeywell issues 2018 forecast up 1 point on last year
I forgot that Honeywell is also announcing its forecast on NBAA Day Minus Two (is it about time business aviation journalists unionised).
Honeywell’s 27th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook is forecasting up to 7,700 new business jet deliveries worth $251 billion from 2019 to 2028 – up 1 to 2 percentage points from the 2017 10-year forecast.
“A better used-aircraft market environment coupled with the entry into service of many new business jet platforms will lead to higher deliveries in 2019 after a virtually flat year in 2018,” said Bill Kircos, vice president, Global Marketing, Honeywell Aerospace. “We are excited about the used market and about new and innovative aircraft models that will not only drive solid growth in 2019 and 2020, but also have a significant impact on new business jet purchases in the midterm and long term.”
Key findings in the 2018 Honeywell global outlook include:
- Operators plan to make new jet purchases equivalent to about 20 percent of their fleets over the next five years as replacements or additions to their current fleet, an increase of 1 percentage point compared with the 2017 survey results.
- Of the total purchase plans for new business jets, 14 percent are expected to occur by the end of 2019, while 16 percent and 24 percent are scheduled for 2020 and 2021, respectively.
- Operators continue to focus on larger-cabin aircraft classes, ranging from the Super Mid-size through Ultra-Long range, which are expected to account for more than 87 percent of all expenditures of new business jets in the next five years.
- The longer-range forecast through 2028 projects a 3 to 4 percent average annual growth rate as new models, improved economic performance, and anticipated favorable exchange rates for international customers will contribute to industry growth.
- Purchase plans are higher in North America this year than last, and increased significantly in Europe, with slow economic growth and geopolitics affecting plans in Latin America, Middle East and Asia Pacific.
13.00 Praetor Launch Summary: A really impressive launch of two aircraft.
As well as trans-Atlantic flights, the range of the Praetor 600 means that it can also be used from London to Dubai (a key charter route) and Embraer hopes it will sell well in Europe. The Praetor 500 should also be very attractive to South American buyers.
It may take a while for everyone to learn the new name. One Scottish aircraft consultant sent a message to a client – he managed to misspell and mis-number the aircraft.
According to the general gossip, the Praetores (plural for Praetor, as any Latin student knows) are likely to be the only new model launches. Embraer thinks it will be dominated the show daily newspapers on Tuesday.
That is all for today.
12.45 Where does the word Praetor come from?
Embraer has chosen Praetor because it means “lead the way”.
Praetor was a title granted by the government of Ancient Rome to either the commander of an army (the Praetorian Guard) or an elected magistrate. They were often appointed in new territories as the Romans added lands.
Praetor is contracted from praeitor (“one who goes before”),
As our One Minute Week email, pointed out, Embraer is the only Latin OEM.
12.30 Interesting news for Legacy 450 owners
Legacy 450 owners will be able to convert their aircraft to Praetor 500s. The retrofit includes adding winglets, a software upgrade and opening up fuel tanks.
Embraer estimates that this will cost $500,000 and should be availible from the fourth quarter of 2019. If you have an order for a Legacy 450 this seems like a no-brainer.
12.10 Praetor by Embraer
“The worlds most disruptive and technologically advanced mid-size jets”
Curtain drops: Both aircraft are here. Light show. Cloud claps
Praetor 600
- List price: $19.995 million
- First delivery: second quarter 2019
- Range: 3950 nautical miles with four passengers
- Range: 3750 nautical miles with eight passengers
- Cabin Altitude: 5800 feet
- Home like connectivity
- “The smoothest flight experience”
- Full fly-by-wire
Praetor 500
- List Price: $16.995 million
- First delivery: Third quarter 2019
- Range: 3250 nm with four passengers
- 5800 feet cabin altitude
- Home like connectivity
- “The smoothest flight experience”
- Full fly-by-wire
12.05 It has all gone dark. Sound of motorbike/chainsaw -OK, the event is Top Gun themed
Michael Amalfitano wearing leather jacket. Says his vision is delivering innovative products and service solutions to elevate experience.
Announcing TWO disruptive aircraft for mid-size and super-mid-size aircraft
Amalfitano: “Enjoy the ride”
Top Gun music
11.50 Lots of people here. Announcement soon
Advert says: “For those that feel the need for performance. Innovation is in the air. Performance to take your breath away. Prepare for goosebumps” – the latter will be impressive as it is very hot in here.
10.30 EDT: Embraer gearing up for “Disruptive” Announcement
Imagine that you are a lazy journalist.
By coincidence, your kids are heading off on a school trip to Italy on the Saturday. So it makes sense to head over to NBAA with your business partner/wife early and spend the Sunday chillaxing by the pool. You can taste the pina coladas already.
And then Embraer says that it has a big announcement on the Sunday [the caps are from its email]:
“WE LOOK FORWARD TO SHARING THIS DISRUPTIVE MOMENT WITH YOU
THE BIG MOMENT – WHEN WE REVEAL A SECRET THAT WILL DISRUPT BUSINESS AVIATION ONCE AGAIN – IS APPROACHING.
WE ARE INCREDIBLY EXCITED TO SEE YOU AT THE HANGAR ORLANDO
ON SUNDAY, OCTOBER 14 AT 11:30 A.M.
WE WISH WE COULD TELL YOU MORE, BUT WE CAN’T – UNTIL SUNDAY.
SEE YOU THEN!”
